Douglas Adams was a captivating and entertaining keynote speaker. Whereas it is to be expected that the author of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy would be entertaining, it was surprising and gratifying to find him also insightful and inspiring about technology itself—the path it has come, the problems we (yet) have with it, and where it ought to go. His talk was sprinkled liberally with humorous characterizations of the technological world in which we live. Here are a few of the observations and quips from his speech as well as some of the main points of his presentation.
On the recent dot.com bubble: the success of these dot.com companies, paying for "eyeballs," clicks on their banner adds, was predicated on the idea that many, many people would visit their sites on the web, and somehow this would eventually generate revenue. "Apparently people think that if you multiply zero by a sufficiently large number, eventually it suddenly becomes something."
On modern day lies, along with "The check's in the mail," and "Honest, officer, I was only driving the speed limit," ought to be include the phrases, "To serve you better..." and "For you convenience..." As in AT&T's announcement, "To serve you better, we have installed an automated voice response operator to assist you with your call." It doesn't work well, and you can't ask it what you really want...
On technology: "'Technology' is just our word for something that doesn't work yet." We make things in our culture that are far too complex.
How do we know something is too complex?
But someday it will. How will we know when it finally works? The answer is, we won't. It works when we no longer notice it anymore. It's somewhat like one of the better hi-tech ergonomic chairs. There exists a very nice, hi-tech model of the ergonomic chair, that has built-in sensors and actuators, and that automatically adjusts to your body - as you move, as you lean forward, as you lean back - and it doesn't require an instruction manual to tell you how to use it. You don't notice its operation. It just works. When we have software that works like the hi-tech chair, it just does it's job for you without your noticing it - then technology will truly make the world a better place.
On time travel: It won't ever happen. "If, sometime in the future, someone were to eventually discover time travel, then we would have already found out about it by now. (Think about it... Then again, maybe the insurance industry actually did discover it. Consider how, buried deep within your insurance policy, is a neatly-worded exclusion that excludes exactly that item that just broke.)"
The Rules of Technology: The college graduates of today have never know a time when there was not this thing called a Personal Computer, while many of us who were present at its inception are still coming to terms with it. Many graduates cannot even remember when there was not a World Wide Web. This gives rise to Douglas's Rules of Technology:
On new technology: We seldom have any idea what we are actually going to use it for in the long run. When the telephone was first invented, people wondered what in the world we were ever going to use it for. They didn't image that it would become the social force it is today - where we can call up our friends any old time we want, and just babble incessantly about nothing in particular. Their speculation, in England: "Well, perhaps it would be a means whereby everyone could listen to what the king has to say to them..."
But the uses of the computer kept changing. We found that it could add numbers terribly quickly, so we learned that the computer was an adding machine. Then, we realized that these numbers that it stores don't have to be just numbers. They could represent letters of the alphabet, say. So next we added a keyboard, and along came word processing programs, and we realized that now the computer is actually a typewriter. Next, we discovered that we could also represent pictures with these numbers, and we added a monitor, and learned how to compress streams of these little pictures, and suddenly realized that the computer is really a television. Finally, we learned how to connect these computers to other computers, and exchange information, and the World Wide Web was born, and we ultimately realized that the computer is, in fact, a brochure. We can use it to locate virtually any company on the web, and find out about that company, what its products are, and how we can go about purchasing some.
Which leads us to some the major points that were touched on: the benefit of sharing information on the web, the vast, overlooked opportunity for and the importance of finding out what people really want, and the importance of the development of a nanopayment technology.
On sharing information on the web: British Airways has a web site where you can go and find out about their scheduled flights, times of departure and arrival, and cost of a ticket. But that's all you can find out. You have no idea what other departure times might be available on other carriers, or what other options are available. So you leave the site looking for comparative information. You may not come back at all if you find something more suitable. To BA, their site is just a brochure, where they tell you about just their product. But once you've gone, they've lost your eyes. They don't know where you went, or what you ultimately ended up buying.
United Airlines web site, on the other hand, tells you about all flights - not just theirs, but about other carriers' as well. They will help you book a reservation on their flights, or on their competitors. If they do not have a flight that meets your needs, they don't merely lose your business. They now can find out
On finding out what people really want: Amazon.com ("the least unsuccessful bookseller on the web") has taken a step in the right direction in use of web. It is a community; you can affect it, you can review books, you can share with others. What can we do to improve? Presently Amazon still operates much like the bricks and mortar model. Most of the effect you have still occurs when you purchase a book. (They know the demand for that book.) When you don't purchase: nothing. As in the bricks and mortar business, when you purchase, customer demand for that item is known to the seller. But when you don't purchase, because they don't have it, or because it is cheaper elsewhere, they don't know anything.
However, some businesses today (video & DVD sellers are an example) allow you to put your name on a notification list to receive email when the item is finally released on DVD. This gives them information when they haven't yet even made a sale. It is a start. But still, you can only check a box on the list of offered titles for notification of future DVD release. What if you want a video copy of an old TV show from the '60s? There is no place on the form to express your desire. We need to design software to record what the customer is really looking for.
Raw notes from here on down (tbd):
Credit card: not good for purchase < $1.00. Inefficient, merchants don't like it because it costs nearly as much to process as is collected.
Ever find yourself at checkout with .25 item and discover you don't have cash, and end up purchasing a few extra items so you don't incur the embarrassment of paying for a .25 item with a credit card?
Thinks about debate about copyrights, Napster, IP.
Buy a book, pay $10. Ultimately the author only gets $1 of it. Similar for musicians. Even less powerful musicians get an even smaller percentage.
The actual cost going to the author or musician falls in this dead zone of < $1 that is inefficient to pay.
Consider buying a novel by the page. Pay maybe 0.01 a page?
If you read only the first 18 pages you pay only 0.18.
Great for you. Great for author.
Eventually the web will no longer be free, it will merely be cheaper than the other methods.
Until we provide technology and infrastructure for digital nanopayments, we can't fairly call 50 million people on Napster thieves, when we don't even give them the alternative [to pay].
Computers are everywhere. They go where the information is. They go where we go.
Consider cddb.com. A worldwide discography. Place a CD in your drive, and a worldwide database of every CD recorded is available to download the track list. When a new CD is published, first person to place the CD in their PC can enter the track list, and upload it to the data base. Everyone thereafter has benefit of that information. That is a powerful use of the technology, worldwide sharing.
Picture a scenario of worldwide information sharing: Virtual view from on top of the Eiffel tower. Ask to hi light all the cars on the streets of Paris that are your favorite model of BMW. Ask to see, among those, who is listening to Handel's Messiah. One shows up. You initiate an online conversation with the driver. You discuss your mutual taste in music. Decide to meet for dinner at a nice French restaurant. Ask for nearby cafe. Recent patrons today leave their remarks on the food. The steak isn't so good tonight, but the fish is marvelous. You decide to meet her there, but suddenly realize you can't, because you are actually not in Paris. You are in New Delhi. That's OK, however, because she's not actually driving a BMW on the streets of Paris. She's a 43 year old housewife in Albuquerque who put up a virtual automobile to cruise the streets of Paris in hopes of making contact with someone who shares her interest in music.
Cookie Conflict anecdote: it is amazing how much information we can absorb before we realize that our model of the world is actually wrong.
Conclusion: Be alert and be aware that the world is being turned upside down, and don't wake up someday to realize that it seems that somebody else is eating your cookies.